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9/29/12

Oil price in 2012-2013


This is a revision to our oil price prediction as based on the difference between the overall PPI and the index of crude oil. Figure 1 compares our previous prediction in May 2011 with actual oil price in 2011 and 2012. In August 2011, the predicted price was a bit higher than the measured one. We expected the price to fall by approximately $5 per month to the level of ~$70 by December 2011. In reality, the price reflected from the high bound of the expected price (dashed line) and grew during the end of 2011. This effect reflects the high level of price volatility during short time intervals. Since February 2012, the price has been returning to the expected price range which expresses the slow fall through 2016, with the uncertainty bounds for the long-term trend in oil price shown in Figure 1. The level of oil price in 2016 is expected between $30 and $60 per barrel.
Here we confirm the oil price trend and its bounds. Red squares show our prediction of oil price through February 2013. Despite local fluctuations, the trend is negative and will bring the price to $45 (±$15) per barrel in 2016.  
Figure 1. The evolution of oil price since 2001 as estimated from the differnce of the overall PPI and the PPI of crude petroleum.

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